| Abstract |
This research aims to identify appropriate strategies for reducing CO2 emissions under the carbon neutrality framework within Smart City Thailand. The Path Solow model based on vector moving average–GARCH in mean with environmental pollution (PS–VMA–GARCHM–EnPoll model) has been developed, and it is a highly suitable tool for environmental protection. This model can also be applied to other sectors and stands out from previous models by effectively prioritizing key factors for long-term strategic planning in a concrete and efficient manner. Additionally, the model illustrates the direction of causal relationships, both positive and negative, which is highly beneficial for more concrete policy formulation. This allows the government to determine which factors should be reduced or receive less support and which factors should be promoted for greater growth compared to the past. The findings suggest two strategic approaches to reducing CO2 emissions: (1) New-scenario policy based on high-sensitivity indicators—By selecting indicators with a sensitivity analysis value above 90%, including clean technology, renewable energy rate, biomass energy, electric vehicles, and green material rate, CO2 emissions can be reduced by 43.06%, resulting in a total CO2 gas emission of 398.01 Mt CO2 Eq. by 2050, which is below Thailand’s carrying capacity threshold of 450.07 Mt CO2 Eq.; and (2) Expanded-scenario policy using all indicators with sensitivity above 80%—By incorporating additional indicators, such as waste biomass, gasohol use rate, fatty acid methyl ester rate, and solar cell rate, along with those in the first scenario, CO2 emissions can be reduced by 60.65%, leading to a projected CO2 gas emission of 275.90 Mt CO2 Eq. by 2050, which aligns with Thailand’s national strategy goal of reducing CO2 gas emissions by at least 40% by 2050 and sets the country on the right path toward achieving net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2065. Thus, implementing the PS–VMA–GARCHM–EnPoll model can effectively contribute to the long-term national strategy for greenhouse gas reduction, ensuring sustainable environmental management for the future. © 2025 by the authors. |
